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Working paper

Multi-sector inflation forecasting – quarterly models for South Africa.

Abstract:

Inflation is a far from homogeneous phenomenon, a fact often neglected in modeling consumer price inflation. Using a novel methodology grounded in theory, the ten sub-components of the consumer price index (excluding mortgage interest rates), are modeled separately and forecast, four-quarters-ahead. Equilibrium correction models in a rich multivariate form employ general and sectoral information, and take account of structural breaks and institutional changes. Our methods allow for longer lag...

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Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Not peer reviewed

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Institution:
University of Oxford
Research group:
South African Macroeconomic Research Programme
Department:
Centre for the Study of African Economies
Role:
Author
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Institution:
University of Oxford
Research group:
South African Macroeconomic Research Programme
Oxford college:
Nuffield College
Role:
Author
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Funding agency for:
Aron, J
Grant:
RES-000-22-2066
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Funding agency for:
Muellbauer, J
Grant:
RES-000-22-2066
Series:
CSAE working paper series
Place of publication:
http://www.csae.ox.ac.uk/workingpapers/main-wps.html
Publication date:
2008-01-01
Language:
English
Keywords:
Subjects:
UUID:
uuid:25361c4c-262d-4c92-bdbf-0fb04cc03869
Local pid:
ora:2539
Deposit date:
2009-01-23

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