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Constraining climate forecasts: The role of prior assumptions

Abstract:

Any attempt to estimate climate sensitivity using observations requires a set of models or model-versions that simultaneously predict both climate sensitivity and some observable quantity(-ies) given a range of values of unknown climate system properties, represented by choices of parameters, subsystems or even entire models. The choices researchers make with respect to these unknown properties play a crucial role in conditioning their climate forecasts. We show that any probabilistic estimat...

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Publication status:
Published

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Publisher copy:
10.1029/2004GL022241

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Journal:
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
Volume:
32
Issue:
9
Pages:
1-5
Publication date:
2005-05-06
DOI:
ISSN:
0094-8276
Source identifiers:
25431
Language:
English
Pubs id:
pubs:25431
UUID:
uuid:338477e1-40e8-4bae-a282-62efaa94778b
Local pid:
pubs:25431
Deposit date:
2012-12-19

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