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Constraining climate forecasts: The role of prior assumptions

Abstract:: Any attempt to estimate climate sensitivity using observations requires a set of models or model-versions that simultaneously predict both climate sensitivity and some observable quantity(-ies) given a range of values of unknown climate system properties, represented by choices of parameters, subsystems or even entire models. The choices researchers make with respect to these unknown properties play a crucial role in conditioning their climate forecasts. We show that any probabilistic estimat...
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Publication status:: Published

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APA Style

Frame, D., Booth, B., Kettleborough, J., Stainforth, D., Gregory, J., Collins, M., & Allen, M. (2005). Constraining climate forecasts: The role of prior assumptions. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 32(9), 1–5.

MLA Style

Frame, D., et al. “Constraining Climate Forecasts: The Role of Prior Assumptions.” GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, vol. 32, no. 9, 2005, pp. 1–5.

Chicago Style

Frame, D, B Booth, J Kettleborough, D Stainforth, J Gregory, M Collins, and M Allen. 2005. “Constraining Climate Forecasts: The Role of Prior Assumptions.” GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 32 (9): 1–5.
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Publisher copy:: 10.1029/2004GL022241

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+ Frame, D More by this author

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+ Booth, B More by this author

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+ Kettleborough, J More by this author

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+ Stainforth, D More by this author

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+ Gregory, J More by this author

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Bibliographic Details

Journal:: GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
Volume:: 32
Issue:: 9
Pages:: 1-5
Publication date:: 2005-05-06
DOI:: 10.1029/2004GL022241
ISSN:: 0094-8276

Item Description

Language:: English
Pubs id:: pubs:25431
UUID:: uuid:338477e1-40e8-4bae-a282-62efaa94778b
Local pid:: pubs:25431
Source identifiers:: 25431
Deposit date:: 2012-12-19

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Copyright date:: 2005

Licence:: Terms and Conditions of Use for Oxford University Research Archive

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