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On Selecting Policy Analysis Models by Forecast Accuracy.

Abstract:

The value of selecting the best forecasting model as the basis for empirical economic policy analysis is questioned. When no model coincides with the data generation process, non-causal statistical devices may provide the best available forecasts: examples from recent work include intercept corrections and differenced-data VARs. However, the resulting models need have no policy implications. A 'paradox' may result if their forecasts induce policy changes which can be used to improve the stati...

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Role:
Editor
Role:
Editor
Role:
Editor
Publisher:
London School of Economics
Pages:
71 - 119
Host title:
Putting Economics to Work: Volume In Honour of Michio Morishima.
Place of publication:
London
Publication date:
2000-01-01
ISBN:
0-753-01399-1
Language:
English
UUID:
uuid:3724d4ad-5340-49bc-a0c9-5fc845cca6d5
Local pid:
oai:economics.ouls.ox.ac.uk:12311
Deposit date:
2011-08-16

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