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Journal article

Emission budgets and pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 °C

Abstract:

The Paris Agreement has opened debate on whether limiting warming to 1.5°C is compatible with current emission pledges and warming of about 0.9°C from the mid-19th-century to the present decade. We show that limiting cumulative post-2015 CO2 emissions to about 200 GtC would limit post-2015 warming to less than 0.6°C in 66% of Earth System Model members of the CMIP5 ensemble with no mitigation of other climate drivers, increasing to 240GtC with ambitious non-CO2 mitigation. We combine a simple...

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Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed

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Publisher copy:
10.1038/ngeo3031

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Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
SSD
Department:
SOGE
Sub department:
Environmental Change Institute
Role:
Author
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Research Council of Norway More from this funder
Oxford Martin School More from this funder
Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada More from this funder
Deep South National Science Challenge More from this funder
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Publisher:
Nature Publishing Group Publisher's website
Journal:
Nature Geoscience Journal website
Volume:
10
Pages:
741–747
Publication date:
2017-09-01
Acceptance date:
2017-08-22
DOI:
EISSN:
1752-0908
ISSN:
1752-0894
Source identifiers:
731408
Pubs id:
pubs:731408
UUID:
uuid:4d58d721-886f-4dc5-9aea-e9042b5a7c43
Local pid:
pubs:731408
Deposit date:
2017-10-02

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