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The structural identifiability of the susceptible infected recovered model with seasonal forcing.

Abstract:

In this paper, it is shown that the SIR epidemic model, with the force of infection subject to seasonal variation, and a proportion of either the prevalence or the incidence measured, is unidentifiable unless certain key system parameters are known, or measurable. This means that an uncountable number of different parameter vectors can, theoretically, give rise to the same idealised output data. Any subsequent parameter estimation from real data must be viewed with little confidence as a resu...

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Publisher copy:
10.1016/j.mbs.2004.10.011

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Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
MSD
Department:
NDM
Role:
Author
Journal:
Mathematical biosciences
Volume:
194
Issue:
2
Pages:
175-197
Publication date:
2005-04-01
DOI:
EISSN:
1879-3134
ISSN:
0025-5564
Source identifiers:
449660
Language:
English
Keywords:
Pubs id:
pubs:449660
UUID:
uuid:6514da6b-9d07-4f63-a526-c2cc826968d1
Local pid:
pubs:449660
Deposit date:
2014-02-26

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