Journal article

Proper local scoring rules

Abstract:

We investigate proper scoring rules for continuous distributions on the real line. It is known that the log score is the only such rule that depends on the quoted density only through its value at the outcome that materializes. Here we allow further dependence on a finite number $m$ of derivatives of the density at the outcome, and describe a large class of such $m$-local proper scoring rules: these exist for all even $m$ but no odd $m$. We further show that for $m\geq2$ all such $m$-local ru...

Publication status:
Published

Access Document

Publisher copy:
10.1214/12-AOS971
Journal:
Annals of Statistics
Volume:
40
Issue:
1
Pages:
561-592
Publication date:
2011-01-26
DOI:
ISSN:
0090-5364
Language:
English
Keywords:
Pubs id:
pubs:184649
UUID:
uuid:80e9c2eb-c802-4240-841b-1e8cde1b5e41
Local pid:
pubs:184649
Source identifiers:
184649
Deposit date:
2012-12-19