Journal article icon

Journal article

Forecast-based attribution of a winter heatwave within the limit of predictability

Abstract:

The question of how humans have influenced individual extreme weather events is both scientifically and socially important. However, deficiencies in climate models’ representations of key mechanisms within the process chains that drive weather reduce our confidence in estimates of the human influence on extreme events. We propose that using forecast models that successfully predicted the event in question could increase the robustness of such estimates. Using a successful forecast means we ca...

Expand abstract
Publication status:
Published
Peer review status:
Peer reviewed

Actions


Access Document


Files:
Publisher copy:
10.1073/pnas.2112087118

Authors


More by this author
Institution:
University of Oxford
Division:
MPLS
Department:
Physics
Sub department:
Atmos Ocean & Planet Physics
Role:
Author
Natural Environment Research Council [2006-2012] More from this funder
Publisher:
National Academy of Sciences Publisher's website
Journal:
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Journal website
Volume:
118
Issue:
49
Article number:
e2112087118
Publication date:
2021-11-29
Acceptance date:
2021-09-29
DOI:
EISSN:
1091-6490
ISSN:
0027-8424
Language:
English
Keywords:
Pubs id:
1198769
Local pid:
pubs:1198769
Deposit date:
2021-10-05

Terms of use


Views and Downloads






If you are the owner of this record, you can report an update to it here: Report update to this record

TO TOP