Forecast-based attribution of a winter heatwave within the limit of predictability
The question of how humans have influenced individual extreme weather events is both scientifically and socially important. However, deficiencies in climate models’ representations of key mechanisms within the process chains that drive weather reduce our confidence in estimates of the human influence on extreme events. We propose that using forecast models that successfully predicted the event in question could increase the robustness of such estimates. Using a successful forecast means we ca...Expand abstract
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- Peer reviewed
(Accepted manuscript, 6.1MB)
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- Leach et al.
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- Copyright © The Authors 2021. Published under the PNAS license.
- This is the accepted manuscript version of the article. The final version is available online from the National Academy of Sciences at: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2112087118
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